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THE OPPENHEIMER REPORT

Mexico's big hope: get 5 million U.S. retirees
BY ANDRES OPPENHEIMER

MEXICO CITY -- Mexico is silently working on proposals aimed at drawing millions of U.S. retirees to this country, which could eventually lead to the most ambitious U.S.-Mexican project since the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.

President Felipe Calderón is likely to propose the first steps toward expanding U.S. retirement benefits and medical tourism to Mexico when he goes to Washington on an official visit May 19, according to well-placed officials here. If not then, he will raise the issue later this year, they say.

"It's one of the pillars of our plans to trigger economic and social well-being in both countries,'' Mexico's ambassador to the United States Arturo Sarukhan told me. "We will be seeking to increasingly discuss this issue in coming months and years.''

Calderón brought it up during a U.S.-Canada-Mexico summit in Guadalajara in August last year, but President Barack Obama asked him to shelve the idea until he was able to pass healthcare reform, another official told me.

Now that Congress has passed healthcare reform, Calderón is preparing to charge ahead.

A GROWING MARKET

There are already an estimated 1 million Americans living in Mexico. And according to Mexican government estimates based on U.S. Census figures, that number is likely to soar to 5 million by 2025 as the U.S. population grows older and more Americans look for sunny, cheaper places to retire.

The U.S. Census projects that the number of U.S. retirees will soar from 40 million now to nearly 90 million by 2050. Already, 5 million American retirees live abroad, of whom 2.2 million are in the Western Hemisphere -- mostly in Mexico, the Dominican Republic and Brazil. Another 1.5 million live in Europe and 850,000 in Asia.

The key to luring more U.S. medical tourists and retirees to Mexico and other Latin American countries will be getting hospitals in the region to be certified by the U.S. Joint International Commission, which establishes that they meet U.S. hospitals' standards. There are already eight Mexican hospitals certified by the JIC and several others awaiting certification.

According to Mexican government estimates, healthcare costs in Mexico are about 70 percent lower than in the United States. And from my own experience, those estimates are right: As I reported at the time, when I was hospitalized in Mexico two years ago for an emergency operation, my hospital bill was indeed about 70 percent lower than what it would have been in Miami.

So what will Calderón specifically propose to Obama? Most likely, the Mexican president will suggest starting with a low-profile agreement that would allow the U.S. Health Care Financing Administration to pay for Medicare benefits to U.S. retirees in Mexico. Under current rules, Medicare only covers healthcare services in the United States.

IT JUST MAKES SENSE

My opinion: Mexico and much of Latin America are bound to become growing U.S. retirement and medical tourism destinations, much like Spain has become a permanent living place for Germans, Britons and Northern Europeans.

You won't read much about it now because neither Calderón nor Obama will emphasize it publicly while the drug-related violence in northern Mexico is making big headlines, and while the political wounds from the recent U.S. healthcare debate are still open in Washington, D.C.

But I'm increasingly convinced that, as the violence in Mexico subsides and the healthcare debate becomes a distant memory in Washington, medical benefits' deals will become a top U.S.-Latin American priority. Just as free-trade agreements were the big thing of the 1990s, healthcare agreements will be the big deal of the coming decade.

I wouldn't be surprised if Calderón and Obama take the first baby steps toward a U.S.-Mexico healthcare agreement by finding a way to pay for Medicare benefits for U.S. expatriates in Mexico, or getting U.S. states to allow similar payments. Then, most likely after the 2012 presidential election in both countries, the two would start negotiating a more ambitious deal.

Demography, geography and economics are pointing in that direction. With the U.S. population getting older, a record U.S. budget deficit, rising U.S. healthcare costs, and Mexico and other Latin American countries badly needing more tourism and investments, this should be a win-win for everybody.

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Obama was right about one thing and that is the US health care system is not sustainable in its current form for very much longer. All of the forecasts project premiums to continue rising much faster than inflation and reduced benefits / more cuts under medicare.

The country has been outsourcing everything else so I guess it was just a matter of time for that to include health care. Maybe they could open up DMV offices in Tijuana, Rosarito and Ensenada...

A Sickness
It’s about time the U.S. and Mexico came together on this Medicare thing.

I have good genes. I've never really been sick. I suffered all the childhood illnesses but never anything major. As an adult I did not have sickness available for an excuse--when I phoned in sick my employers always knew I was lying. I had to invent far-fetched reasons I could not work when I wanted to go fishing. I blame my dad for the genes...he died at age 94. To offset and put to the test these perfect genes I have abused my body in all the ways one could imagine. The Mormon's (who I used to work for) say "Your body is a Temple". My Temple has undergone lots of vandalism and deferred maintenance. They liked the fact that my employee jacket indicated that I had used only $98 from the medical program in 17 years (flu shots they recommended). During four years in the U.S. Navy I needed only the forgivable expense of medical service and equipment necessary to pull one tooth.

I have earned the right to be sick now. Now is the time -- I'm old, I have nothing but time and I'm a little grouchy. Now all that medical inattention is paying off. My blood is so weak and thin, when I cut myself it looks like I've been eating watermelon with my hands. Now everything I have hurts. It only hurts during that most infrequent of times--the times when all my ills are not covered by a wonderful narcotic--alcohol. I have my first Bloody Mary at 9:30 AM; I have only two. After lunch I take a siesta. After a walk on the beach, an hour or so on the computer, I shower, change clothes and await the cocktail hour -- 5 PM. Two or three gin martini's. After dinner (about 7 or 7:30) maybe a glass or two of brandy on the patio. In those few hours that I am not sufficiently medicated in this way, I ache all over.

Even if the U.S. does not move fast enough when I hit the lottery I"m gonna buy insurance -- the best there is. The word COMPREHENSIVE comes to mind. There are wonderful, modern hospitals in La Paz. When they see what deep pockets my insurers have they will welcome me. Every conceivable kind of medical procedure will be available. Specialists will be summoned. At all the best hospitals I will have batteries of tests. They will pinch, squeeze, Xray, scan and biop every little thing I point to. Most of the tests will be positive. The conditions will have to be attended to -- some organs will have to be replaced. Tissue will have to be grafted. It might be necessary to suture, constrict, clean, open, move, extract things. Special therapists will gather, consult, form teams. Special medication, procedures, ultra light/sound/submersion might be indicated.

It will be a grand time. A time I can bask in the pleasure of the complaint...I will moan, grouse, demand, cry, malinger, relapse, remit and reject. During the months (or years) I'm in the hospital, my social security checks will be piling up, sitting on the kitchen counter...building up a little fund. Then, when I finally go, I'll have enough money to buy that special headstone I always admired. Engraved so artfully in Italian marble:

I TOLD YOU I WAS SICK

Maybe then I'll get all the pity, the sympathy my condition so richly deserves.

Despite the current hue and cry over immigration, one simple fact is clear. In a very few years, due to these self-same retirees, there will be a massive shortfall of workers in the US. Given that Mexico has a very large population of younger folks, it seems to me that it will just a matter of time when the type of spooning that Obama and Calderon are doing, will include massive efforts to entice young, educated Mexican to fill the void in the US workforce.

Where we were erecting walls to keep 'em out, we'll be holding job fairs.

Preparing for a Future Labor Shortage - Graziadio Business Report

Originally Posted by Osprey

A Sickness


When I finally go, I'll have enough money to buy that special headstone I always admired. Engraved so artfully in Italian marble:

I TOLD YOU I WAS SICK

Maybe then I'll get all the pity, the sympathy my condition so richly deserves.

Not from me , you don't

But, in case I predecease you, you're welcome to my worn out body parts that are still of use. Since I cut the sauce by about 75%, my liver maybe even in usable shape.
When, by necessity, I pay California a visit, I usually get checked out. Have to tell the sawbone that I have a pain somewhere, otherwise Medicare refuses payment, since checkups are not part of the program. Then, when I get the bill, medicare ended up paying, I have to grin at the thousands of dollars they are charged for simple procedures, like bloodwork, X rays, cardiogram etc. Most times you deal with a nurse practitioner. Doesn't seem to save any money though.
BTW, if we would have an aching contest, I'll beat you hands down.

And Jorge,

Right now I'm aching in the Guanajuato, San Miguel de Allende and Dolores Hidalgo area.
Neat places for a visit, but really can't wait to get back to Loreto and my own bed.
Next week Friday, flying back out of Guadalajara.

Friday????? Or Thursday??? You're on my calendar for Thursday!! It might behoove one ot the other of us to synchronize watches again! You check with Mrs. edinnopolo & let me know!

Originally Posted by Bajahowodd

Despite the current hue and cry over immigration, one simple fact is clear. In a very few years, due to these self-same retirees, there will be a massive shortfall of workers in the US. Given that Mexico has a very large population of younger folks, it seems to me that it will just a matter of time when the type of spooning that Obama and Calderon are doing, will include massive efforts to entice young, educated Mexican to fill the void in the US workforce.

Where we were erecting walls to keep 'em out, we'll be holding job fairs.

Preparing for a Future Labor Shortage - Graziadio Business Report

I would be willing to bet that Corporate America is already figuring out how they can outsource as many of those jobs as possible...

Originally Posted by longlegsinlapaz

Friday????? Or Thursday??? You're on my calendar for Thursday!! It might behoove one ot the other of us to synchronize watches again! You check with Mrs. edinnopolo & let me know!

You have it right girl. Another sign of old age.

Thursday the 29th, it is. If I told you that Barb is the one mentioning Friday, you won't believe me anyhow, so why try.

If the US government allows retirees to seek health care via medicare benefits in Mexico, I predict you will see a rush of US based firms moving to build operations in Mexico. They will probably just cut a deal with the cartels to share in the billion dollar profits that will be at stake.

Maybe they will just contract El Chapo to get them their drugs at better prices...