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Illegal Immigration From Mexico in Decline

BY CINDY CARCAMO / THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
Friday July 8, 2011 6:18 p.m

Nearly three decades ago, Celso Muñoz Reyes crossed illegally into the U.S. with relative ease.

He paid a smuggler $300 to take him across the San Ysidro border and the then-16-year-old arrived safely in a land filled with countless well-paying jobs ready for the taking. Not once was Reyes confronted by immigration officials, he said, and years later, the Guerrero, Mexico native gained legal residency, settled into Santa Ana and ultimately became a U.S. citizen.

His is the tale of the quintessential illegal immigrant. It's an out-of-date story, however.

Today's illegal Mexican immigrant pays up to $6,000 for a smuggler and contends with a dangerous journey, dominated by ruthless cartels, a reinforced border and menacing desert. For those who make it, there's no guarantee of a job and there is a higher risk of detection and deportation than ever before.

These are some of the reasons why fewer Mexicans are choosing to cross illegally into the United States, immigration demographers and experts said.

At the height of Mexican illegal immigration from 2000 to 2004, about 500,000 Mexicans were thought to be coming into the country illegally or overstaying their visas annually, according to the Pew Hispanic Center's analysis of census data.

Last year, that number had shrunk to about 100,000 Mexicans annually crossing the border illegally or overstaying their visas to remain in the United States.

The decline is due to a variety of reasons, according to demographers at the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton University.

Many will point to the slowdown in the U.S. economy, illegal immigration crackdowns in various U.S. states, and a spike in drug cartel activity along the border, said Katharine Donato, a sociology professor at Vanderbilt University.

Donato also serves on the advisory board for the Mexican Migration Project, an extensive, long-term study that surveys people in Mexican "sending" regions – those states from which most migrants come to the U.S.

FERTILITY RATES AND EDUCATION

However, Donato points to growing evidence that other factors are at play. For instance, she said, plummeting fertility rates and growing educational opportunities in Mexico are some of the reasons why more Mexicans are opting to stay home.

"What people fail to recognize is that Mexico is not a country where everyone is poor. It's not a country with no educated people," Donato said. "There are fewer kids to feed, more schools and the economy is growing and very strong. You're seeing jobs you didn't see before... This is the new context for Mexico-U.S. migration."

For instance, the Mexican family has become a lot smaller. Fertility rates used to average a little more than seven children per woman but now it's a bit over two, Donato said statistics show. The change came in the 1970s when the Mexican government launched birth control programs, which one can now find even in smallest rural Mexican towns.

Fewer people means less of an economic drain on the family, allowing them to forge a decent life in Mexico and not have to consider a move north, Donato said.

In addition, Mexico has devoted a large amount of money to education since the 1970s, which has helped launch a multitude of technical schools, universities and colleges accessible to youth not far from their hometowns.

On the northern side of the border, it's become increasingly difficult to avoid deportation, Muñoz Reyes said. He's heard several stories from friends, family and colleagues. The Santa Ana resident and former president of Guerrero state's hometown association said some of the people he knows to be in the country illegally are having a harder time staying.

"When I first came here 28 years ago it was easy to find work. Now there are fewer jobs," Reyes said. He now owns his own refinishing business in Santa Ana.

"Also I'm hearing stories about people getting pulled over for one reason or another and ending up deported because of an infraction, such as not having a license."

The Obama administration is deporting record numbers of people who are in the country illegally, according to federal data.

Also, fewer people are migrating to the U.S., Celso said, because of the increased violence along the border, making it more expensive and dangerous – a high risk especially without the guarantee of finding a job.

MORE RETURNING TO MEXICO?

While most demographers agree that fewer Mexican people are making the trek to illegally enter the United States, there's less consensus on whether there's an increase in people returning home to Mexico.

Analysts say it's a challenge to get a snapshot of the number of migrants exiting the country. However, anecdotal information shows that both people who are in the country legally and illegally are returning to Mexico.

Read about how more immigrants – legal and illegal – were returning to Mexico about two years ago.

About 10 years ago it was unheard of for an entire Mexican immigrant family to move back home, said Gerardo Magaña, who works with youth in Santa Ana's primarily immigrant communities.

Now, he said, he knows of at least 20 Mexican immigrant families seriously considering a move back home.

Magaña, senior director for Lighthouse Community Centers in Santa Ana and Orange, said he knows of at least two families that have already gone back to Mexico. Most of the family members were in the country illegally, he explained.

It was about a year ago that he started seeing all the changes, he said. Magaña has worked with Santa Ana youth for about a decade. He also heads the centers, a ministry of Irvine-based Mariners Church.

"That's definitely a new phenomenon over the past year. It was actually shocking to me how many families are considering a move back," Magaña said.

He said immigrants' talk about returning began right around the time various states, such as Arizona, considered anti-illegal immigration bills.

"There was talk about it coming to California and spreading to other states," he said. "There's also financial hardship and jobs are just drying up. It makes it difficult to survive. The quality of living ... what they're experiencing now in the U.S... it would be equal to what they went back home to in Mexico. So why be in a country where they are not wanted and have the same quality of living?"

In addition, Magaña said, the centers are seeing fewer youth who are recent arrivals compared to a decade ago.

While businesses that cater to a Latino clientele on Fourth Street in downtown Santa Ana are doing better than two years ago, they're still struggling, some shop owners said.

Guillermina Madriles, owner of Mina's Bridal, said she could barely pay her electricity bill two years ago because there were fewer people on the streets and those who shopped were buying less.

While she caters to a diverse clientele, a good portion are Mexican immigrants – legal and illegal.

"We're making about $10,000 a month now in business. Then I wasn't even making $100 a month," Madriles said.

Still, the days of making $60,000 a month are long gone. That was before the recession hit, when immigrants were buying.

Those days may never come back, said Donato, the sociology professor.

"If the U.S. economy picks back up the way it was and grows, we may see a pick up in sectors in decline," she said. "It will reinstate a flow but not at all at the level of before."

HOW WILL DECLINE AFFECT IMMIGRATION DEBATE?

While some anti-illegal immigration scholars and activists agree with demographers that illegal immigration has dipped, there's a disagreement on what will come next and how it will affect such a tumultuous immigration debate.

While Congress is deadlocked on immigration issues, state legislators across the nation are creating their own anti-illegal immigration laws.

However, few of these politicians and activists are talking about the decline and how illegal immigration from Mexico has changed in the last two decades, Donato said.

The policy debate hasn't changed because politicians and mainstream America still have in mind the old, prototypical illegal immigrant and have failed to take into consideration what's happening in the country of origin, she explained.

"The old viewpoint has informed the policy debate," Donato said. "We're still consumed in the debate of the migration story of the past."

Steven Camarota, an immigration demographer at Center for Immigration Studies, says the findings will not change the conversation about illegal immigration in Washington, D.C. The center is a think tank that believes in restricting immigration.

"For people who thought one way or the other on the policy debate, the situation is not going to change anything," he said. "They'll still make the same exact argument and part of the reason they can do that ... is because we still have about 11 million illegal immigrants in this country."


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