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They just keep moving further & further north! We are in THE prime timeframe for hurricanes to impact us up close & personal. Three of the prediction models currently (as of 5 AM update) show this one interacting directly with the tip of the peninsula....& the others are predicting it to come nerve-wrackingly close. Keep an eye out on this one!

Wish all OK with this..... as not sure what would happen here in Orange County CA ... if one ever got this far north... just saying...

At least you folks are somewhat prepared for something like this ... most up here are not.. it would be a very serious situation if one ever did reach here...

Will only say that many of the "climate models" are projecting weather patterns to change here in So Cal... to Tropical .. in the future.. with an increase of rain up to 60 inches per year..

LA may change a bit over the next 40-50 years.. not sure how in the end this would affect Baja in the long run.. but would seem increased water would be good to some degree...

One thing about evolution ..... It is most definitely not STATIC ...

StormPulse says 60%

Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping

(click on the upper right to turn on the clouds imaging)

I was just coming back in to update it to 60% based on the 11 AM update, but you beat me to it! I haven't been at my PC....off doing getting things accomplished!

I just watched Irene put her eye rtight over the house I used to own and kvetched alot for my friends, still without power, some flooded, and lots of damage. Not in the mood for this.

Yeah well, while I can sincerely appreciate your feelings, you know that Mother Nature doesn't give a rip....and she bats last in this particular game!

90% & growing as of the 5 AM update!

Looks like our FM2 renewal might be delayed. Good thing we still have time.

Damn Dusty, you're good!! Mother Nature might have heard you this time....11 AM update is forecasting EIGHT-E to intersect with mainland:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082011
800 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2011

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT T2.5...SUGGESTING THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEPRESSION TO LAND SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST IN THE WATCH AREA
TODAY. ONCE INLAND...THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR.

THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY MAKES THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE...320/06...SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION AND
ULTIMATELY THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY COURSE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. HOWEVER...
THE LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION SEEMS SLIM SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE
OVER RUGGED TERRAIN LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
TO BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS
COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A
PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEFORE THE DEPRESSION
MOVES INLAND. THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD...IN COMBINATION WITH THE
STEEP TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 18.0N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 18.7N 103.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 19.7N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 20.7N 105.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1200Z 21.5N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

Instant update: The 2 PM graphic update shows it has already moved over land in mainland. Sorry for the flooding they're getting, but I didn't get around to moving patio furniture in the garage yet & I doubt if Dusty will bemoan our lack of wind & rains....besides, hang in there, we'll get another chance in a few days!

Given that CFE gave us an opportunity for a generator test last night, I took that as a bad omen.
We'll see.

DANG!!!! Clear over in your area, too??? I spent the first 1/2 hour in the pool, until the mosquitoes found me....without fans, casa was too dark (all my current alternate light sources generate heat!) & muggy....so I sat in my car with the fan on & read by vanity light for the other 1 1/2 hours! Will eventually get around to re-pricing LP generators! Sooner rather than later might be smart!

Wooo, you reconsidering hitting INM since storm went ashore on mainland? Welcome mat is always out!