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MEXICO CITY – Jimena developed into a dangerous Category 4 storm off Mexico's Pacific coast Sunday, threatening to hit the Baja California peninsula as a major hurricane in coming days.

Jimena swirled far enough away from land Sunday to spare Mexico's southwestern coastline, only sprinkling the port of Manzanillo with light drizzle.

If it stays on its northwestern track, however, it could carry hurricane-force winds to the tip of resort-dotted Baja California by late Monday and slam into the peninsula by Wednesday morning, said Richard Pasch, a senior specialist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

Pasch noted that Jimena's path "is subject to some uncertainty" and that it is difficult to predict how strong the storm will be when it nears Baja, although he said it is likely to be dangerous.

"I think it's going to be a substantial hurricane by the time it approaches them," he said.

A public advisory issued by the hurricane center advised residents in western Mexico and the southern part of the Baja peninsula to keep tabs on Jimena.

Economists from around the world were scheduled to attend a conference sponsored by the Paris-based Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development on Tuesday and Wednesday on the peninsula. It was not clear if the conference will still take place; the organization's public relations office was closed Sunday.

Jimena had maximum sustained winds near 135 mph (215 kmh) Sunday and was moving northwest near 9 mph (15 kph.) It was centered about 285 miles (460 kms) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Farther out in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Kevin had top winds of 50 mph (85 kph) and was centered about 960 miles (1,540 kms) southwest of the Baja peninsula's southern tip.




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Hurricane JIMENA >>>Dynamic displays below update automatically

Things are not looking any better for the peninsula this morning.

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS AND NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST OR ABOUT 355
MILES...570 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JIMENA LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.0N 108.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

I hope everyone in the Sur has finished with preparing for this .

If it stays on track it will be bad.
Even it it vears more to the west most of Sur will get hit hard.

Geez. The 11am update says the hurricane hunters found max sustained winds at 150!

Looks like this turned into a cat 5 storm?

La Paz had a HUGE thunderstorm sweep through yesterday, followed by torrential rains. I was in the midst of rapidly typing a local update when I lost power. It was out from around 3PM Sunday until just before noon today. Very humid & muggy here! Tracking this storm makes me think that Southern Baja is going to get hit HARD! Marty in 2003 had my full attention before it hit & Jimena has my attention even stronger. Black clouds moving back in over La Paz right now & the wind just kicked back up....by the time the hurricane hits, it'll be anticlimatic after all these practice runs! Cranked my freezer up to hopefully keep things frozen a tiny bit longer when power goes out again!

Damn!!! Power just went out again for 5 min! Updates to TB don't appear to be a good thing to do!

Later.....as electricity & other conditions allow!

1. I actually DO have battery-back-up....on my PC to give me time to shut it down safely after a power outage! Didn't buy a generator yet! $$$$$$$$$$$

2. No! Too much cement & rebar inside it!

3. You must mean this terrible mismatched pair of "fuzzy slippers" on my feet! Dogs are spooked, I haven't told them the worst is yet to come! Cat takes a much more dignified approach....but he also came out to join the family within 1 sq foot of Mom! Safety in numbers I guess!

Logging off until this current mini-storm passes!

I hope it doesn't get too bad where you are Longlegs. Unfortunately, looks like San Juanico will take a direct, although somewhat diminished, hit. Could still be near a Cat 2 according to the predictions. Hope our "hurricane proof" construction holds up. Hate being here up north, not knowing what's happening there. Then again, I don't know...we may have evacuated anyway.

Wooo, I hope your place will be OK!!
Some folks feel differently, but scary as it is, I prefer being here during the storms. Maybe it makes me feel more in control or something, even though I'm really not. Anyhow, I'll cross fingers for you!!

La Paz area, 6:30 am local time. No wind, barely a sprinkle. Waiting.

Hmmmmmmm....why am I starting to get the impression that SOME out there are envisioning my casa breaking up into little styrofoam peanuts & littering Baja for the rest of eternity?

Wooo, as Kate said, there's a strong drive to want to stay to see what's happening, despite the fact we may be powerless to change most of it. But I've discovered that there is also a limited amount of stuff we can do to minimize damage if we can spot it in time; I'm one of those wouldn't leave without a mandatory evacuation order.

My 2 dogs & the cat are getting more & more skitzo! Cat has hung in really close to the rest of the family since yesterday, like they all know something is going to happen, but not sure what....just that they all need to be on alert! They lay huddled in a small cluster & then get a strong desire to burn off some of the tension by having mock fights & chasing one another through the casa! If mine are like this already, I'm eternally grateful I don't have to ride it out with Gracie!

9:30 AM La Paz time & the rain's back, barely a drizzle for the past hour, but there's a lot more where this came from!

Last minute tips....as the winds get stronger, open ALL your sliders & windows 1/4"....it helps reduce the pressure on the glass....much easier to be mopping a little more water that would have gotten in somewhere else & it's definitely better than having to clean up shattered glass! Charge your cell while we still have power! Elevate furniture on wooden blocks or put Tupperware or plastic containers under them.

Be smart & stay safe everyone! You too Gracie!

legs' last tip on open windows and sliders is a winner, as far as sustained high winds are concerned. What happens is that as the winds blow over and around your home, it actually creates a band of lower pressure than inside the structure, virtually causing the glass to blow out. Keeping the windows and doors open, may seem inconvenient, but it allows the pressure to equalize.

Best of luck, folks. It currently appears that the eye of Jimena is tracking slightly Westward. The good news is that the farther the storm travels North into the much cooler waters of the Pacific West of Baja, the faster it should diminish in strength.

5:20 PM La Paz area....Fairly steady rain last 2 hours, wind ranging from low-medium & occasional high gusts. It would be awesome if this were the worst we'll get...the last update appears to show it slowly moving west, but I'm not going to heave any sighs of relief until later this evening, despite the fact that the 5 PM pics show it's now a Cat. 3. I'm familiar with these nighttime sneak attacks! Pool level has risen about 2" in the past 2-3 hours.

Water water, everywhere...I'd start the ark, but would probably lose electricity (yeah, I know Noah didn't even HAVE electricity) before it'd float!! Moist ceiling around chimney, but the real challenge has been keeping ahead of the water pouring in all sides of the skylite....I'd need something like a wading pool to capture it all!! No other ceiling leaks have shown up...YET!

Animals all crashed! Too bad I can't drift off for a couple hours!

Posting fast before Firefox crashes....AGAIN!

Central La Paz, 6:00: Light rain, a little wind from the SE. (Why not SW? Anybody know?) Mostly as Legs describes, stronger rain and wind off and on. I have doors open but windows closed because I can't run around fast enough when conditions change. One lucky thing is that temps dropped dramatically here since yesterday. It's probably in the high 70s both inside and out, which makes the humidity less noticeable. Pool will start overflowing soon and looks so tempting that I'd be in there if it weren't so chilly!!

I think we have to wait until tomorrow a.m. to say "it's over".

Originally Posted by kate

Central La Paz, 6:00: Light rain, a little wind from the SE. (Why not SW? Anybody know?)...

I'll venture a guess:



Pretty sure that's right/Northern Hemisphere.

Southwest tomorrow morning.

Good guess.
Still raining here, steady. No wind right now, nice "heat lightening" type show over La Paz. With all the city lights on, it's beautiful. Eye should be close to, if not above our latitude right now, I'd surmise that we got by on this one with nowhere near the wind damage that we feared. Rain could be another story, some of the dirt roads (ours) have taken a real beating, and we still have at least a day to go while the water comes running out of the mountains. Ah well, one step at a time.

This morning is spectacular. It's windy but sun is breaking through the clouds over La Paz. Steady blowing rain. It is dark and angry to the west with a spectacular full rainbow, clear as can be. If the pot o' gold isn't at longlegs' house, she could sure walk over to it easily! Stunning!

Everyone's prayers worked....we dodged catastrophe on this one.

7 AM La Paz area....finally dropped off to sleep sometime after midnight, was absolutely exhausted. Was not aware of anything until the wind woke me at 6 AM. No rain now, just the intermittent high wind gusts. Damn near got knocked down taking these pics! And never mind that "no rain now" comment! Clouds are sailing along towards the north at a fast clip!