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TIJUANA.- Pérdidas de más de 4 mil millones de pesos en inversiones públicas, y una caída del 90% en obras del sector privado, ha generado una reducción de hasta del 60% de los empleos en el ramo de la construcción en la Zona Costa en el último año, el cual está sumido en la peor crisis de su historia en Baja California.

Así lo reveló Javier Palomino Guerrero, presidente de la Cámara Mexicana de la Industria de la Construcción (CMIC), quien incluso adelantó que este 2013 tampoco será un buen año, pues aún no se tienen contratos privados con las desarrolladoras de vivienda, y existe muy poca inversión pública a pesar de las necesidades en vialidades.

http://www.el-mexicano.com.mx/informacio...onstructor

TIJUANA - Losses of more than 4 billion pesos (US$330 million) in public investments, and a decrease of 90% in private sector work, has created a reduction of up to 60% in employment on the construction industry in the Coastal Zone during the last year. This is the worst crisis in the history of Baja California.

This was reported by Javier Palomino Guerrero, president of thd Mexican Construction Industry Chamber, who said that this year of 2013 would also not be a good year. There are still no private contracts let for the development of homes, and there is very little public investment, even in light of the necessity for public roads.

I talked with a Survey engineer in February who said the coastal title problems had virtually stopped investment from TJ to Mid-Ensenada. He said it was causing local construction jobs to be lost.

There has to be demand at a good price point to renew buyer interest though... "If you build it will they come?" I'm not sure.

Unemployment figures are usually calculated from the numbers applying for unemployment insurance which, according to my understanding, are non existent in Mexico.
I wonder how they think they know the severity of the problem?
Not only that....all of the recent hype about the burgeoning middle class and their market clout being put out there to encourage foreign investment would tell me the government would be suppressing the real numbers if above the respectable level.
Do you think they may be a bit on the disingenuous side?

Originally Posted by DENNIS

Unemployment figures are usually calculated from the numbers applying for unemployment insurance which, according to my understanding, are non existent in Mexico.
I wonder how they think they know the severity of the problem?
Not only that....all of the recent hype about the burgeoning middle class and their market clout being put out there to encourage foreign investment would tell me the government would be suppressing the real numbers if above the respectable level.
Do you think they may be a bit on the disingenuous side?

I don't know how unemployment is calculated here. The last I heard there were 17 incomplete construction projects in the TJ to Ensenada corridor. Those jobs are easy enough to tally- not sure how they come up with the rest. It's election season.

Originally Posted by Woooosh

It's election season.

When isn't it??

Appears there is NO shortage of construction work in La Paz,

There is
- 2 new hotels.
- at least 4 MEGA Mansions in the Costa Baja area
- about 10 new houses being built on the outskirts of La Paz, (Expat homes)
- New Convention centre
- Number 4 Diesel Electric Plant
- Road work GALORE through out La Paz (Tearing out all the asphalt and putting in concrete)
- Replacing the old HPS and Metal Halide street lights with LED fixtures.
- The list goes on.....

However I understand most of the construction workers come from areas other than the La Paz area.

Originally Posted by CDN_JOHNNY

Appears there is NO shortage of construction work in La Paz... However I understand most of the construction workers come from areas other than the La Paz area.

I think that is part of the problem. The cost of living in Baja is significantly higher than on the Mexican mainland. That is supposed to be offset by higher local wages and tourist-centric jobs that pay more. When a project stops suddenly( or tourist visits decline) , these people have no where to go and they are stuck with higher overhead. That causes more stress on the few Mexican safety-net systems that exist. An area with slow and stable construction and growth is better than one with a quick burst of activity followed by inactivity.

Originally Posted by Woooosh

I think that is part of the problem. The cost of living in Baja is significantly higher than on the Mexican mainland. That is supposed to be offset by higher local wages and tourist-centric jobs that pay more. When a project stops suddenly( or tourist visits decline) , these people have no where to go and they are stuck with higher overhead. That causes more stress on the few Mexican safety-net systems that exist. An area with slow and stable construction and growth is better than one with a quick burst of activity followed by inactivity.

Living in both Mexicali and Central Mexico I see prices of rent higher in Mexicali and TJ, Rosarito etc. but other expenses definitely not significantly higher as you mentioned. I see housing prices higher in Central Mexico for a similar populated city as for Mexicali where the bubble burst in 2006 and are substantially lower to own residential property still.

There may be medical and dental expenses in Baja significantly higher and wages to employees and construct laborers, land and service related charges a bit higher depending on location though. Overall if you take out medical, dental and rent you might pay a bit more in Baja for everyday expenses. Significant no. If you buy residential property in Mexicali and TJ compared to a similar sized industrialized city in Central Mexico now you are a winner.

5, 6, 7 or more years ago you would be correct. Now not so correct. Alan

Originally Posted by MexicaliAlan

Living in both Mexicali and Central Mexico I see prices of rent higher in Mexicali and TJ, Rosarito etc. but other expenses definitely not significantly higher as you mentioned. I see housing prices higher in Central Mexico for a similar populated city as for Mexicali where the bubble burst in 2006 and are substantially lower to own residential property still.

There may be medical and dental expenses in Baja significantly higher and wages to employees and construct laborers, land and service related charges a bit higher depending on location though. Overall if you take out medical, dental and rent you might pay a bit more in Baja for everyday expenses. Significant no. If you buy residential property in Mexicali and TJ compared to a similar sized industrialized city in Central Mexico now you are a winner.

5, 6, 7 or more years ago you would be correct. Now not so correct. Alan

" If you buy residential property in Mexicali and TJ compared to a similar sized industrialized city in Central Mexico now you are a winner."

can you explain that a bit? In your opinion where are the best investment opportunities for 2013?

Originally Posted by Woooosh

" If you buy residential property in Mexicali and TJ compared to a similar sized industrialized city in Central Mexico now you are a winner."

can you explain that a bit? In your opinion where are the best investment opportunities for 2013?

My nice house in Mexicali up for sale since July. Alan

I dont think I understand. Say you bought 2 properties of roughly equal value in 2004, one in central mexico and one in TJ or Rosarito. Now in 2013 you want to sell both properties, you will have done better in TJ or Rosarito? Seems like nothing actually sells easily in Baja Norte anymore. Is the real estate market in large cities near the capital or in Jalisco even worse than Baja Norte?

You say you have a nice home for sale in Mexicali that's been listed since july, but it still hasnt sold? Are homes in central mexico also that hard to sell? That's almost a year on the market! In the US anyway that's astonishingly long. In San Diego homes dont list for longer than a month or two max.

-Roger

Originally Posted by Uzun

I dont think I understand. Say you bought 2 properties of roughly equal value in 2004, one in central mexico and one in TJ or Rosarito. Now in 2013 you want to sell both properties, you will have done better in TJ or Rosarito? Seems like nothing actually sells easily in Baja Norte anymore. Is the real estate market in large cities near the capital or in Jalisco even worse than Baja Norte?

You say you have a nice home for sale in Mexicali that's been listed since july, but it still hasnt sold? Are homes in central mexico also that hard to sell? That's almost a year on the market! In the US anyway that's astonishingly long. In San Diego homes dont list for longer than a month or two max.

-Roger

Hi Roger.

I said IF YOU BUY NOW, today, you will pay significantly less "If you buy residential property in Mexicali and TJ compared to a similar sized industrialized city in Central Mexico now you are a winner."

If you are selling now you will be loosing money compared if you sold in 2005 or 2006, etc.in Mexicali or TJ, as far as I have heard.

It appears residential housing prices in many industrial cities in other parts of Mexico away from the border are now higher and did not go down in value like Baja over the last 7 or 8 years but climbed a bit every year.

I bought the house in Mexicali in the mid eighties. We built a house in San Luis Potosi and moved in Dec. 2011 and have no intention of selling. Alan

Originally Posted by Uzun

I dont think I understand. Say you bought 2 properties of roughly equal value in 2004, one in central mexico and one in TJ or Rosarito. Now in 2013 you want to sell both properties, you will have done better in TJ or Rosarito? Seems like nothing actually sells easily in Baja Norte anymore. Is the real estate market in large cities near the capital or in Jalisco even worse than Baja Norte?

You say you have a nice home for sale in Mexicali that's been listed since july, but it still hasnt sold? Are homes in central mexico also that hard to sell? That's almost a year on the market! In the US anyway that's astonishingly long. In San Diego homes dont list for longer than a month or two max.

-Roger

Hi Roger.

I just sold the house in Mexicali. 1 year to sell it and I got close to what I was asking, so all is not lost. Alan

Originally Posted by MexicaliAlan

Hi Roger.

I just sold the house in Mexicali. 1 year to sell it and I got close to what I was asking, so all is not lost. Alan

good job on the sale!

Originally Posted by Woooosh

good job on the sale!

Thanks. It was not too bad. I considered it would take about 1 year as that was what the neighbors and friends there had told me. Now I am worried about what tax I will be paying.

Originally Posted by MexicaliAlan

Thanks. It was not too bad. I considered it would take about 1 years as that was what the neighbors and friends there had told me. Now I am worried about what tax I will be paying.

I've been curious what the percentages are too. Does the tax depend on if the sellers is a Mexican national or Expat?

Originally Posted by Woooosh

I've been curious what the percentages are too. Does the tax depend on if the sellers is a Mexican national or Expat?

Here you go:
http://www.bajatimes.com/articlesDetail.asp?sid=2269
http://www.sat.gob.mx/sitio_internet...o/78_3623.html
It seems that SAT distinguishes not so much by nationality as by residency. A Mexican national who lives abroad would be considered a "foreigner" in this context, and a foreigner who is considered as a resident of Mexico would be treated more like a Mexican, at least in theory.
http://www.sat.gob.mx/sitio_internet...o/78_2145.html

A lot of cities in the US take a year or more to sell a house as well. But not southern california for the most part. Houses in San Diego/LA sell really fast. Does real estate in Baja sit longer than real estate near similar sized cities on the Mexican mainland?

We know two couples here at Lakeside who have had their houses on the market for almost 2 years with only low ball offers. We know another couple who had a beautiful house in the Ajijic village. It was a very large, well built house -- but it took almost 3 years for them to sell it. We also have other friends who sold their house within a few months. There doesn't seem to be much reason to real estate, except it takes the right person at the right time -- same as anywhere else ---- EXCEPT, we have a friend who lives in San Francisco and the house next door to him just sold in less than 90 days on the market --- for $160,000 MORE than the asking price. The market there must be really good!

Originally Posted by Uzun

A lot of cities in the US take a year or more to sell a house as well. But not southern california for the most part. Houses in San Diego/LA sell really fast. Does real estate in Baja sit longer than real estate near similar sized cities on the Mexican mainland?

From what I gather is yes. If it is priced in the ballpark it will sell, at least in San Luis Potosi.

Baja has had a horrible time with residential real estate since about 2004 and has not recovered yet. Here the housing market slowly but surely climbs a bit every year and never did have a bubble burst, yet.

I guess in vacation beach zones like Puerto Vallarta, tied to NOB buyers did and it burst also. I heard the only ones still maintaining their value are ocean front residences there, all other have lost quite a bit since about 2007/2008 and have not recouped much yet.

In general it appears the industrialized cities are doing about the same as San Luis Potosi which is very industrial.